COP30 in Brazil has recently concluded, bringing the global energy situation and the steps needed to reduce the use of fossil fuels back to the centre of international debate. Among the most relevant takeaways is the crucial role of island territories, identified as some of the areas most urgently requiring an energy transition capable of eliminating dependence on fossil fuels. Islands are in fact among the regions most exposed to climate risks and often rely almost entirely on fossil fuels for their energy supply. In many cases, over 80–90% of electricity is still generated from fossil sources, exposing islands to the high and volatile costs of global fuel markets.
An analysis carried out on small island states in the Caribbean confirms this situation: the penetration of renewable energy in electricity generation ranges from a minimum of 2% to a maximum of just 20%, highlighting that the energy transition is still in its early stages.
The Renewable Potential of Islands
The same analysis, however, clearly shows that despite the current low levels of renewable penetration, the technical potential available is extremely high. Islands benefit from irradiation conditions that are highly favourable for photovoltaic development. Some assessments indicate that half of the islands analysed could cover more than 50% of their current electricity consumption through solar alone, and in some cases could even exceed 100% of annual demand.
If the contribution of onshore wind were added to solar, more than half of the islands could reach a level of coverage equal to or greater than 60% of their electricity needs. However, the most significant finding emerges when considering the potential of fixed-foundation offshore wind power: through this source, combined with the others, 6 out of the 9 islands examined could reach 100% renewable electricity generation. Almost half of the islands would surpass 250% of annual consumption, with extreme cases exceeding 750%.
These results show that an energy transition based exclusively on renewable sources is within reach, provided it is supported by a balanced energy mix and the correct sizing of storage systems.
Impact of Tourism on Electricity Demand
Seasonal variability in electricity consumption is an extremely important factor to understand, as it significantly influences the balance between non-programmable production and demand. For this reason, the study also analysed the impact of tourism on fluctuations in electricity demand.
Only “stopover” tourists, those spending at least one night on the island and therefore generating genuine energy consumption, were considered in the analysis. Transit passengers (such as cruise ship tourists) were excluded. The results reveal concerning figures: in all the islands analysed, the annual number of stopover tourists is at least equal to the resident population. In the most extreme case, the ratio between tourist arrivals and local population exceeds 450%.
These numbers highlight the strong impact of tourism on electricity consumption in island territories and the resulting seasonal variability. They point to the need for flexible energy systems that are well integrated across different sources (especially wind and photovoltaic) and equipped with adequate storage capacity.
Next Steps
The results obtained clearly show how much work remains to be done in island territories and, at the same time, how much room for improvement they have at their disposal. Being aware of this potential becomes essential for local administrations, enabling them to precisely define decarbonisation objectives and effectively guide energy transition strategies.
The analysis carried out so far represents a first step in a broader process. The methodology will soon be enhanced with additional technical and qualitative parameters, in order to outline increasingly accurate scenarios on how islands can achieve energy independence and what the key determining factors are for this to happen.
Projections of electricity demand growth will be examined in greater detail, and in parallel, the appropriate balance between generation sources and storage needs will be more clearly defined. Finally, these technical assessments will be accompanied by a preliminary estimate of the costs associated with the transition, providing an understanding of the economic scale of interventions and enabling better support for local governments as they define their decarbonisation pathways.
